The UK HPI which is a combination of data from the HM Land Registry, Land and Property Services Northern Ireland, Office for National Statistics and Registers of Scotland. Analysis of the HPI data showing the sale of units or the number of residential flats may be reaching pre-covid levels.
The first graph below shows the numbers over the last 10 years (Apr 2011 – Dec 2020). The data also shows that there was an unusually high spike in sales numbers in flats, months before the Brexit vote (June 2016).
It also illustrate the seasonal activity of the property market. Lower volumes in the early part of the year, peaking around late summer.
The second graph is a closer look at the sales numbers pre- and post- lockdown last year. The effect of the first covid lockdown in April 2020 where the mortgage market almost came to a standstill is clearly visible, from shutting of estate agents, furlough and restriction on surveyors entering property to do physical valuations. Even before the lockdown the market was declining as the news of the pandemic was spreading in the news.
Recent news says the market has recovered with more buyers than available properties currently, as the frustrated homebuyers who were in lockdown become more active. This has been helped by the stamp duty holiday as well. However, it is coming to an end. We will cover the expected impact on the property market when the stamp duty holiday ends, in another post.
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